The Middle East conflict and crypto market volatility have been top of mind in LP conversations this month. We wanted to share where Verda stands, because we think the conclusion is somewhat counterintuitive.
First, we have zero direct Middle East exposure, minimal token risk, and our portfolio companies are continuing to accelerate through the volatility.
No direct Middle East exposure. We haven’t invested in any companies headquartered in the broader Middle East. Our portfolio is concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, focused on localized stablecoin infrastructure and cross-border payment corridors (full list here).
Minimal token exposure. Over 95% of our portfolio companies are equity-only. We are not exposed to token price volatility in any meaningful way. Our returns are driven by revenue growth and equity markups, not token markets.
Portfolio momentum remains strong. We had two markups last quarter and expect additional markups. Across the portfolio, multiple companies are posting triple-digit year-over-year revenue growth and expanding geographic coverage across LatAm, Africa, and APAC.
The broader point is that geopolitical disruption often strengthens, rather than weakens, our core thesis. When local banking channels become less reliable, stablecoin usage for savings, settlement, and cross-border payments increases. We've seen this pattern across markets facing currency instability and capital controls, and we're seeing it again now.
Public data points worth highlighting:
Stablecoin market cap grew ~49% in 2025, from $205B to $310B, and reached an all-time high of $306B in March 2026 even as BTC declined (CryptoQuant)
Exchange stablecoin reserves dropped to $50.6B in March as users moved to self-custody and direct savings, suggesting stablecoins are increasingly held as a store of value, not just traded (CryptoQuant)
In emerging market cross-border corridors, 81% of total transfer cost is infrastructure friction, not FX spread. Stablecoins compress the infrastructure layer (Delphi Digital, March 2026)
In Brazil, roughly 90% of crypto-related cross-border volume is in stablecoins, highlighting their role as dollar-linked payment and savings rails (Chainalysis)
Nigeria ranks #1 globally for USDT ownership at 59% of crypto users, with Africa leading global stablecoin adoption (BVNK 2026 Stablecoin Utility Report)
USDT now has 550M+ users globally, with no single sender accounting for more than 5% of total volume, indicating genuine distributed adoption (Tether/Ardoino, March 2026)
Institutional validation is also accelerating. This is no longer a market defined by pilot programs and experimentation at the edges. Visa launched a dedicated stablecoins advisory practice in December 2025 and separately disclosed more than $3.5 billion in annualized stablecoin settlement volume (Visa). Mastercard announced on March 17, 2026 that it agreed to acquire BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, one of the clearest signs yet that major global payments incumbents view stablecoin infrastructure as strategically important (Bloomberg). Wells Fargo filed a WFUSD trademark covering crypto trading, digital payments, and tokenization (USPTO, March 2026). PayPal expanded stablecoin access to 70 countries (PayPal). Mastercard's Crypto Partner Program is now live with 85 firms including Solana, Circle, and Rain (Mastercard).
Regulatory clarity is improving as well. In December 2025, the OCC conditionally approved five national trust bank charter applications tied to digital asset firms, including Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos (OCC). This week, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding to coordinate regulation of digital asset markets (SEC, March 2026). In our view, this is part of a broader shift toward regulated, compliant stablecoin infrastructure becoming more investable for institutional capital.
In summary, we have more conviction than ever that stablecoin infrastructure in emerging markets remains one of the best risk-adjusted opportunities in venture today. The category is benefiting from a rare convergence of macro demand, regulatory progress, and institutional validation, while our specific portfolio remains positioned away from the most obvious geopolitical and token-related risks.
We’re actively investing in this market. Reach out to us if you’re building in the space, looking at the category, or want to discuss where we see the biggest opportunities @ [email protected].
Keep it stable out there!
